Whitby Town vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Towbar Express Stadium at the Turnbull Ground, Whitby, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Whitby Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Whitby Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
Gainsborough Trinity starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,791 vs 1,650).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Whitby Town have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 0-5 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Ashton United(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leek Town(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Workington(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Whitby Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Gainsborough Trinity win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Whitby Town 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 1-0 Whitby Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 25, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-1 Whitby Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Whitby Town 0-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Whitby Town 0-1 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-0 Whitby Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Whitby Town vs Gainsborough Trinity on Feb 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Whitby Town score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whitby Town | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Whitby Town sit 14th in Non League Premier - Northern (6 points from 5 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 14 | Whitby Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Whitby Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Whitby Town.
- Where and when is Whitby Town vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Whitby Town vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Towbar Express Stadium at the Turnbull Ground, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.