Sunderland vs Brentford: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium of Light, Sunderland
The Footlab model makes Brentford the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
Brentford starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (2,186 vs 2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Brentford have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 6-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Sunderland win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Brentford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Brentford 3-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Sunderland 2-1 Brentford | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2018 | Sunderland 0-2 Brentford | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2017 | Brentford 3-3 Sunderland | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Brentford vs Sunderland on Jan 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sunderland score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Brentford score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Brentford | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunderland sit 13th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Brentford sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Brentford?
- The Footlab model makes Brentford the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Sunderland vs Brentford played?
- Sunderland vs Brentford is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium of Light, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.