Chelsea vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,601 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (2,378 vs 2,172).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Arsenal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
4-2-3-1- 7Pedro Neto
- 17M. Rogers
- 25M. Caicedo
- 10C. Palmer
- 45R. Lavia
- 14J. Henderson
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 6L. Colwill
- 3W. Fofana
- 5M. Lacroix
- 39M. Penders
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 20N. Madueke
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 10E. Eze
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 33R. Calafiori
- 12J. Timber
- 1David Raya
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Arsenal have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chelsea wins, 1 draw, 5 Arsenal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea | League Cup |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Chelsea 2-3 Arsenal | League Cup |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.8 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 4th in Premier League (16 points from 9 matches) and Arsenal sit 1st (24 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
A question about Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Arsenal played?
- Chelsea vs Arsenal is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.