Sutton Utd vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 46Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)VBS Community Stadium, Sutton, Surrey
The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Sutton Utd. The most likely score is 1-1. If Carlisle wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,455 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sutton Utd vs Carlisle?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,947 vs 1,786).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sutton Utd vs Carlisle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sutton Utd
4-3-3- 9T. Babalola
- 16B. Njoku
- 18D. Ogbonna
- 8J. Taylor
- 7E. Osadebe
- 14O. Mussa
- 5W. Nightingale
- 27B. Brookes
- 15J. Moore-Taylor
- 12D. Urpens
- 1S. Brits
Carlisle
4-3-3- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 9G. Kelly
- 6M. Azeez
- 4H. Bunker
- 30T. Jenks
- 15B. Nicholson
- 17L. Duru
- 5M. Feeney
- 18J. Ellis
- 1A. Desbois
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sutton Utd have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Carlisle have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | West Bromwich Albion U21(home) | 3-2 | National League Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Boreham Wood(home) | 0-2 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Tamworth(away) | 0-2 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Forest Green(home) | 3-3 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 0-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AFC Fylde(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-5 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 0-1 | National League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sutton Utd wins, 2 draws, 1 Carlisle win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Carlisle 3-0 Sutton Utd | National League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Sutton Utd 2-1 Carlisle | National League |
| May 8, 2023 | Sutton Utd 1-1 Carlisle | League Two |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Carlisle 1-1 Sutton Utd | League Two |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Carlisle 0-2 Sutton Utd | League Two |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Sutton Utd 4-0 Carlisle | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Carlisle vs Sutton Utd on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sutton Utd score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Carlisle | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sutton Utd sit 13th in National League (18 points from 13 matches) and Carlisle sit 14th (17 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
A question about Sutton Utd vs Carlisle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sutton Utd vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Sutton Utd.
- Where and when is Sutton Utd vs Carlisle played?
- Sutton Utd vs Carlisle is played on April 24, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at VBS Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.