Sutton Utd vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 46Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)VBS Community Stadium, Sutton, Surrey
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Sutton Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sutton Utd vs Carlisle?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,774).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sutton Utd have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Carlisle have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hartlepool(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leicester City U21(home) | 0-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Woking(away) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Southampton U21(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sutton Utd win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Carlisle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Carlisle 3-0 Sutton Utd | National League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Sutton Utd 2-1 Carlisle | National League |
| May 8, 2023 | Sutton Utd 1-1 Carlisle | League Two |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Carlisle 1-1 Sutton Utd | League Two |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Carlisle 0-2 Sutton Utd | League Two |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Sutton Utd 4-0 Carlisle | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Carlisle vs Sutton Utd on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sutton Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sutton Utd sit 2nd in National League (9 points from 3 matches) and Carlisle sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sutton Utd vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Sutton Utd.
- Where and when is Sutton Utd vs Carlisle played?
- Sutton Utd vs Carlisle is played on April 24, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at VBS Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.