Sutton Utd vs Southend: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)VBS Community Stadium, Sutton, Surrey
The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Sutton Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sutton Utd vs Southend?
Southend starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,774).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sutton Utd have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Southend have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hartlepool(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leicester City U21(home) | 0-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Woking(away) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Southampton U21(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aveley(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Sutton Utd win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Southend win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Sutton Utd 0-3 Southend | National League |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Southend 1-0 Sutton Utd | National League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Sutton Utd 1-1 Southend | National League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Southend 1-3 Sutton Utd | National League |
Last archived meeting: Sutton Utd vs Southend on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sutton Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Southend score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Southend | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sutton Utd sit 2nd in National League (9 points from 3 matches) and Southend sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sutton Utd vs Southend?
- The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Sutton Utd.
- Where and when is Sutton Utd vs Southend played?
- Sutton Utd vs Southend is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at VBS Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.