Carlisle vs Hartlepool: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Hartlepool. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,541 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,947 vs 1,749).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Carlisle vs Hartlepool
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Carlisle
4-3-3- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 9G. Kelly
- 6M. Azeez
- 4H. Bunker
- 30T. Jenks
- 15B. Nicholson
- 17L. Duru
- 5M. Feeney
- 18J. Ellis
- 1A. Desbois
Hartlepool
4-3-3- 19C. Popov
- 10W. Harris
- 9J. Hugill
- 42Cole Deeming
- 4J. Hunter
- 14N. Sheron
- 6R. McNally
- 12Neo Eccleston
- 3C. John
- 2J. Benn
- 32N. Fisher
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 03:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Hartlepool have 3, 0 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 0-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AFC Fylde(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-5 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-2 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Harrogate Town(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-4 | National League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Carlisle wins, 2 draws, 1 Hartlepool win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Hartlepool 3-1 Carlisle | National League |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Carlisle 3-1 Hartlepool | National League |
| Jan 24, 2023 | Carlisle 3-1 Hartlepool | League Two |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Hartlepool 1-3 Carlisle | League Two |
| Jan 18, 2022 | Carlisle 0-0 Hartlepool | League Two |
| Aug 31, 2021 | Carlisle 3-3 Hartlepool | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Hartlepool vs Carlisle on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hartlepool score 0.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Hartlepool | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 14th in National League (17 points from 13 matches) and Hartlepool sit 20th (12 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
A question about Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Hartlepool.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Hartlepool played?
- Carlisle vs Hartlepool is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.