Carlisle vs Hartlepool: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Hartlepool. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Hartlepool have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sutton Utd(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Middlesbrough U21(home) | 0-10 | National League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Carlisle win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Hartlepool win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Hartlepool 3-1 Carlisle | National League |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Carlisle 3-1 Hartlepool | National League |
| Jan 24, 2023 | Carlisle 3-1 Hartlepool | League Two |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Hartlepool 1-3 Carlisle | League Two |
| Jan 18, 2022 | Carlisle 0-0 Hartlepool | League Two |
| Aug 31, 2021 | Carlisle 3-3 Hartlepool | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Hartlepool vs Carlisle on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hartlepool score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Hartlepool | 1.4 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 12th in National League (4 points from 3 matches) and Hartlepool sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Hartlepool.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Hartlepool played?
- Carlisle vs Hartlepool is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.