Swansea vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 29Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Swansea the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Swansea (1,925) and Birmingham (1,920).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Swansea win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Birmingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea 0-1 Birmingham | League Cup |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Swansea 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Birmingham 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Birmingham 2-2 Swansea | Championship |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Swansea 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Swansea 3-4 Birmingham | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea sit 9th in Championship (4 points from 2 matches) and Birmingham sit 13th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Swansea vs Birmingham played?
- Swansea vs Birmingham is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.