Sydney vs Macarthur: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Sydney the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Macarthur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sydney vs Macarthur?
Sydney starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,919 vs 1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sydney have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Macarthur have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 4-2 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Bayswater City(away) | 5-1 | Australia Cup |
| May 23, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sydney win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Macarthur win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Macarthur 0-3 Sydney | A-League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Sydney 2-0 Macarthur | A-League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Macarthur 0-2 Sydney | A-League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Sydney 1-2 Macarthur | A-League |
| May 4, 2024 | Sydney 4-0 Macarthur | A-League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Macarthur 1-0 Sydney | A-League |
How many goals should we expect?
Sydney score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sydney sit 5th in A-League (39 points from 26 matches) and Macarthur sit 7th (34 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sydney | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 25 | 39 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sydney vs Macarthur?
- The Footlab model makes Sydney the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Macarthur.
- Where and when is Sydney vs Macarthur played?
- Sydney vs Macarthur is played on December 28, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Allianz Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.