Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 56%, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Parnu JK Vaprus U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Tartu Kalev (1,267) and Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (1,272).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Kalev have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Parnu JK Vaprus U21 have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 6-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Luunja(away) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Levadia U19(home) | 2-3 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Tartu Kalev win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | Esiliiga B |
| May 10, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 1-2 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | Esiliiga B |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 5-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Kalev score 3.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Parnu JK Vaprus U21 score 2.5 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Kalev | 3.2 | 2.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Kalev sit 5th in Esiliiga B (41 points from 25 matches) and Parnu JK Vaprus U21 sit 7th (37 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 65 | 47 | 41 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 69 | 54 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 56%, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Parnu JK Vaprus U21.
- Where and when is Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 played?
- Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 is played on September 13, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.