Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Viljandi linnastaadion, Viljandi
The Footlab model makes Tulevik the favourite at 46%, against 20% for a draw and 34% for Tartu Kalev. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Tulevik (1,197) and Tartu Kalev (1,291).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tulevik have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Tartu Kalev have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Narva U21(home) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(away) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Levadia U19(home) | 1-4 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 2-4 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tulevik win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Tartu Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 4-2 Tulevik | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 3-4 Tulevik | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Tulevik 1-3 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Tulevik 2-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Tartu Kalev 1-0 Tulevik | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 26, 2024 | Tartu Kalev 3-0 Tulevik | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Tulevik on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tulevik score 1.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Kalev score 3.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulevik | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Tartu Kalev | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tulevik sit 6th in Esiliiga B (38 points from 25 matches) and Tartu Kalev sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 46 | 40 |
| 6 | Tulevik | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 63 | 52 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Tulevik the favourite at 46%, against 20% for a draw and 34% for Tartu Kalev.
- Where and when is Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev played?
- Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Viljandi linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 84% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.