Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 81%, against 11% for a draw and 8% for Nõmme Kalju II. The most likely score is 3-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Tartu Welco starts as the favourite with a 280-point Elo edge (1,450 vs 1,170).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Welco have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Nõmme Kalju II have 1, 3 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(home) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme United II(away) | 0-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Flora II(away) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Tartu Welco win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Nõmme Kalju II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 2-4 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| May 28, 2026 | Tartu Welco 4-2 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 1-5 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Tartu Welco 5-2 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Nõmme Kalju II 0-3 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Tartu Welco 0-1 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme Kalju II score 1.1 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Nõmme Kalju II | 1.1 | 2.9 | 0 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Welco sit 1st in Esiliiga A (38 points from 16 matches) and Nõmme Kalju II sit 7th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 7 | Nõmme Kalju II | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 35 | 17 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 67 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 81%, against 11% for a draw and 8% for Nõmme Kalju II.
- Where and when is Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II played?
- Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II is played on September 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.