Viimsi vs Tartu Welco: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Viimsi Staadion, Haabneeme
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Viimsi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Viimsi vs Tartu Welco?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Viimsi (1,434) and Tartu Welco (1,449).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Viimsi have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Tartu Welco have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Nõmme United II(home) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Flora II(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 5-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Helios(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maardu(away) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Viimsi win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Tartu Welco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Tartu Welco 2-2 Viimsi | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Viimsi 2-0 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Tartu Welco 1-4 Viimsi | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Viimsi 3-2 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Viimsi 2-1 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Tartu Welco 3-1 Viimsi | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Viimsi score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viimsi | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Viimsi sit 2nd in Esiliiga A (30 points from 15 matches) and Tartu Welco sit 1st (38 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 25 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Viimsi vs Tartu Welco?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Viimsi.
- Where and when is Viimsi vs Tartu Welco played?
- Viimsi vs Tartu Welco is played on September 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Viimsi Staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.