Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Tallinna Kalev. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Maardu (1,411) and Tallinna Kalev (1,367).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maardu have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Tallinna Kalev have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Maardu win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Tallinna Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 1-3 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 3-3 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Maardu 1-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Maardu 1-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Sep 23, 2021 | Tallinna Kalev 4-2 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 2, 2021 | Maardu 1-2 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu on Aug 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maardu score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maardu | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maardu sit 8th in Esiliiga A (16 points from 15 matches) and Tallinna Kalev sit 5th (18 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
| 6 | Maardu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 52 | 35 |
| 8 | Maardu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Tallinna Kalev.
- Where and when is Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev played?
- Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev is played on September 13, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Maardu linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.