Flora II vs Elva: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Sportland Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Flora II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flora II vs Elva?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Flora II (1,373) and Elva (1,384).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flora II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Elva have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Flora II win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Elva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Elva 0-0 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Elva 0-3 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Flora II 3-2 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Elva 2-0 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Flora II 2-0 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 29, 2025 | Flora II 0-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Flora II score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Elva score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora II | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Elva | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flora II sit 3rd in Esiliiga A (26 points from 13 matches) and Elva sit 4th (23 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora II | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Flora II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 42 | 41 |
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flora II vs Elva?
- The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Flora II.
- Where and when is Flora II vs Elva played?
- Flora II vs Elva is played on September 13, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Sportland Arena, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.