Telavi vs Samtredia: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 24Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Givi Chokheli, Telavi
The Footlab model makes Telavi the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Samtredia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Telavi vs Samtredia?
Telavi starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,566 vs 1,462).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Telavi have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Samtredia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Merani Martvili(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gareji(home) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Saburtalo II(away) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(away) | 4-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shturmi(home) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Telavi win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Samtredia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Samtredia 0-3 Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Telavi 2-0 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Telavi 5-2 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Samtredia 2-1 Telavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 28, 2024 | Telavi 0-0 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Samtredia 1-2 Telavi | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Telavi score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Samtredia score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telavi | 1.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Samtredia | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Telavi sit 2nd in Erovnuli Liga 2 (40 points from 22 matches) and Samtredia sit 8th (25 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Telavi | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 40 |
| 8 | Samtredia | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Telavi vs Samtredia?
- The Footlab model makes Telavi the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Samtredia.
- Where and when is Telavi vs Samtredia played?
- Telavi vs Samtredia is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Givi Chokheli, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.