Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, Samtredia
The Footlab AI model makes Samtredia the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Aragvi Dusheti. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?
Samtredia starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,547 vs 1,437).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Samtredia
4-3-3- 10J. Cordero
- 20O. Gagnidze
- 11T. Odikadze
- 7G. Manjgaladze
- 37D. Gvasalia
- 31L. Tsulaia
- 16D. Dobranskyi
- 33G. Latsabidze
- 15G. Kveladze
- 19T. Jangidze
- 12V. Lazarevs
Aragvi Dusheti
4-3-3- 30T. Bzekalava
- 16D. Amoako
- 9E. Sadikov
- 27B. Nuhu
- 18T. Bregvadze
- 11S. Dvalishvili
- 5L. Chokheli
- 20A. Oppong
- 3T. Molashvili
- 21N. Mensa
- 12G. Kutateladze
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samtredia have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Aragvi Dusheti have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sioni(home) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Merani Martvili(home) | 5-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gareji(home) | 6-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Telavi(home) | 1-4 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Merani Martvili(away) | 1-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Shturmi(home) | 3-4 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Samtredia wins, 0 draws, 1 Aragvi Dusheti win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti 2-4 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 6, 2026 | Samtredia 2-0 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti 2-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Aragvi Dusheti 0-2 Samtredia | David Kipiani Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samtredia score 2.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aragvi Dusheti score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samtredia | 2.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 1.4 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samtredia sit 4th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (40 points from 28 matches) and Aragvi Dusheti sit 6th (35 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Samtredia | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 40 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 37 | 35 |
A question about Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?
- The Footlab AI model makes Samtredia the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Aragvi Dusheti.
- Where and when is Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti played?
- Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.