Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, Samtredia
The Footlab model makes Samtredia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Aragvi Dusheti. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Samtredia (1,462) and Aragvi Dusheti (1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samtredia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Aragvi Dusheti have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(away) | 4-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shturmi(home) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samtredia(home) | 2-4 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guria(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 0-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Samtredia win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Aragvi Dusheti win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti 2-4 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 6, 2026 | Samtredia 2-0 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti 2-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Aragvi Dusheti 0-2 Samtredia | David Kipiani Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samtredia score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aragvi Dusheti score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samtredia | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samtredia sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (25 points from 22 matches) and Aragvi Dusheti sit 5th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aragvi Dusheti | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 31 |
| 8 | Samtredia | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?
- The Footlab model makes Samtredia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Aragvi Dusheti.
- Where and when is Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti played?
- Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.