Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz, Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Tenerife)
The Footlab model makes Tenerife the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Sporting Gijon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Tenerife (2,037) and Sporting Gijon (1,960).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tenerife have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Sporting Gijon have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Eibar(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tamaraceite(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cadiz(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Marino(away) | 6-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tenerife win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Sporting Gijon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | Sporting Gijon 1-3 Tenerife | Segunda División |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Tenerife 1-1 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Tenerife 1-2 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Sporting Gijon 2-1 Tenerife | Segunda División |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Sporting Gijon 1-0 Tenerife | Segunda División |
| Sep 30, 2022 | Tenerife 1-1 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Gijon vs Tenerife on Apr 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Tenerife score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Gijon score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Sporting Gijon | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tenerife sit 3rd in Segunda División (3 points from 1 matches) and Sporting Gijon sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tenerife | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon?
- The Footlab model makes Tenerife the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Sporting Gijon.
- Where and when is Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon played?
- Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon is played on August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.