Castellón vs Sporting Gijon: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nou Estadi Castalia, Castellón de la Plana
The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Sporting Gijon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellón wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?
Castellón starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (2,007 vs 1,902).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castellón
3-4-2-1- 9Ousmane Camara
- 8Barri
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 21Álvaro Martín
- 2Juanjo Nieto
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 13R. Matthys
Sporting Gijon
4-4-2- 19J. Otero
- 17Antonio Casas
- 14Álex Corredera
- 8M. Rodriguez
- 10César Gelabert
- 20N. Iosifov
- 2Guille Rosas
- 24Aimar Duñabeitia
- 44Andrés Cuenca
- 15Pablo Vázquez
- 1Rubén Yáñez
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellón have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Sporting Gijon have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Girona(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Girona(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Castellón wins, 0 draws, 3 Sporting Gijon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sporting Gijon 4-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Castellón 3-1 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| May 5, 2025 | Castellón 4-3 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Sporting Gijon 2-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Castellón 2-0 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Sporting Gijon 1-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Gijon vs Castellón on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellón score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Gijon score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting Gijon | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castellón sit 2nd in Segunda División (20 points from 8 matches) and Sporting Gijon sit 8th (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
A question about Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Sporting Gijon.
- Where and when is Castellón vs Sporting Gijon played?
- Castellón vs Sporting Gijon is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nou Estadi Castalia, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.