The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 30Kick-off on March 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire
The Footlab AI model makes The New Saints the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,399 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 233-point Elo edge (1,737 vs 1,504).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
The New Saints
4-3-3- 9Bradley Jamie Ethan Young
- 17J. Williams
- 37Isaac Jefferies
- 20R. Hughes
- 14D. Williams
- 34J. Lock
- 6J. Bodenham
- 16D. Simeu
- 22D. Davies
- 12Harvey George Godsmark-Ford
- 1N. Shepperd
Caernarfon Town
4-3-3- 9Z. Clarke
- 10O. Evans
- 11A. Cieślewicz
- 14N. Edwards
- 19S. Bradley
- 18H. Charsley
- 16B. Nash
- 27R. Sears
- 23C. Marriott
- 15D. Smith
- 1C. Roberts
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 07:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The New Saints have 14 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 5-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Nov 6, 2026 | Llandudno(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 9-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 4-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Nov 6, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 The New Saints wins, 0 draws, 0 Caernarfon Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 2-3 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 0-4 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | The New Saints 2-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2025 | The New Saints 3-0 Caernarfon Town | League Cup |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-3 The New Saints | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The New Saints score 3.9 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 2.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 3.9 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 2.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The New Saints sit 1st in Premier League (44 points from 16 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (29 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 29 |
A question about The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes The New Saints the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town played?
- The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town is played on March 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Park Hall Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.