The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (2,082 vs 1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The New Saints have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 The New Saints win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 0-4 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | The New Saints 2-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2025 | The New Saints 3-0 Caernarfon Town | League Cup |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-3 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2025 | The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints on Mar 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The New Saints score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The New Saints sit 2nd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The New Saints | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town played?
- The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town is played on March 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Park Hall Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.