Match

Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin: prediction and stats

Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Dellagiovanna, San Fernando, Provincia de Buenos Aires

TigreSarmiento Junin

The Footlab model makes Tigre the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?

A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Tigre (1,870) and Sarmiento Junin (1,820).

Tigre win58 %
Draw26 %
Sarmiento Junin win17 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tigre have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Sarmiento Junin have 8, 0 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tigre
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026Atletico Torque(away)1-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Aug 15, 2026Aldosivi(away)0-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 12, 2026Atletico Torque(home)0-1CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Aug 8, 2026River Plate(home)1-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 6, 2026Belgrano Cordoba(home)0-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sarmiento Junin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)2-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 16, 2026Huracan(home)2-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 8, 2026Atletico Tucuman(away)2-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 3, 2026Independ. Rivadavia(home)2-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Jul 28, 2026Banfield(away)2-3Liga Profesional Argentina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tigre win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Sarmiento Junin win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 25, 2026Sarmiento Junin 1-0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Aug 18, 2024Sarmiento Junin 0-0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Jan 25, 2024Tigre 0-0 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
Aug 20, 2023Sarmiento Junin 2-0 TigreCopa de la Liga Profesional
Apr 14, 2023Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Oct 4, 2022Sarmiento Junin 2-2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina

Last archived meeting: Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Tigre score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Tigre1.10.866/155/15
Sarmiento Junin1.31.457/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tigre sit 10th in Liga Profesional Argentina (20 points from 16 matches) and Sarmiento Junin sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Sarmiento Junin640212812
8Tigre5221428
10Tigre16484181520
11Sarmiento Junin16619132019

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
The Footlab model makes Tigre the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Sarmiento Junin.
Where and when is Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin played?
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Dellagiovanna, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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