Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Velez Sarsfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
Velez Sarsfield starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Santa Fe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Velez Sarsfield have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lanus(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Union Santa Fe win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Velez Sarsfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2023 | Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Union Santa Fe 2-1 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 6, 2021 | Velez Sarsfield 4-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 4, 2021 | Velez Sarsfield 4-1 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Santa Fe score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Santa Fe sit 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina (21 points from 16 matches) and Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
- The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Velez Sarsfield.
- Where and when is Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield played?
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 15 de Abril, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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