Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6Group 6 - 2Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Platonas Gligoris, Lefkas
The Footlab model makes Tilikratis the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Agios Matthaios. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios?
Tilikratis starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,531 vs 1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tilikratis have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Agios Matthaios have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Aris Filiates(home) | 2-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Asteras Stavros(away) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Lamia(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Trikala(home) | 1-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Elassona(away) | 1-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | Asteras Kalirachis(away) | 1-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Iraklis Ampelokipon(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 30, 2022 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona(home) | 2-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Makedonikos Neapolis(away) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 23, 2022 | Lefkimmi(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Tilikratis win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Agios Matthaios win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2021 | Tilikratis 3-0 Agios Matthaios | Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios on Apr 28, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Tilikratis score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Agios Matthaios score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tilikratis | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Agios Matthaios | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios?
- The Footlab model makes Tilikratis the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Agios Matthaios.
- Where and when is Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios played?
- Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Platonas Gligoris, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.