Tolmin vs Adria: prediction and stats
3. SNL - WestWest - 12Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Na Brajdi, Tolmin
The Footlab model makes Tolmin the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Adria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tolmin vs Adria?
Tolmin starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,493 vs 1,379).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tolmin have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Adria have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Šencur(away) | 3-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dob(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 16, 2026 | Vipava(home) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(home) | 3-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Izola(home) | 2-4 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Tolmin(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Vipava(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Primorje(home) | 0-4 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Tolmin win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Adria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2024 | Adria 1-3 Tolmin | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2022 | Tolmin 1-0 Adria | Cup |
| Jun 9, 2021 | Tolmin 2-0 Adria | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 19, 2020 | Adria 3-1 Tolmin | 3. SNL - West |
How many goals should we expect?
Tolmin score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Adria score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolmin | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Adria | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tolmin sit 8th in 3. SNL - West (2 points from 2 matches) and Adria sit 11th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tolmin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 11 | Adria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tolmin vs Adria?
- The Footlab model makes Tolmin the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Adria.
- Where and when is Tolmin vs Adria played?
- Tolmin vs Adria is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Na Brajdi, in the 3. SNL - West.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.