Toluca vs Monterrey: result 2-1 and analysis
Liga MXClausura - Quarter-finalsKick-off on May 11, 2025 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
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What was the result of Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca won 2-1 on May 11, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 30′A. VegaToluca
- 48′R. de la RosaMonterrey
- 68′PaulinhoToluca
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Monterrey have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2025 | Monterrey(away) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Cruz Azul(home) | 2-2 | Liga MX |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Atlas(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2025 | Toluca(home) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| May 5, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Apr 28, 2025 | CF Pachuca(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Leon(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Club America(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Toluca win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Monterrey win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2025 | Monterrey 3-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Toluca 1-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Monterrey 1-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Monterrey 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Aug 31, 2023 | Toluca 1-0 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Feb 6, 2023 | Monterrey 2-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Monterrey score 1.9 and concede 1.2.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Monterrey | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Monterrey sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy