Monterrey vs CF Pachuca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for CF Pachuca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monterrey vs CF Pachuca?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Monterrey (1,940) and CF Pachuca (1,936).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterrey have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; CF Pachuca have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 6-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Monterrey win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 CF Pachuca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Monterrey 1-3 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Jul 13, 2025 | CF Pachuca 3-0 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Monterrey 1-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Monterrey 2-3 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Jul 8, 2024 | CF Pachuca 0-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Monterrey 3-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Monterrey vs CF Pachuca on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monterrey score 1.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; CF Pachuca score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| CF Pachuca | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monterrey sit 5th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and CF Pachuca sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | CF Pachuca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monterrey vs CF Pachuca?
- The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for CF Pachuca.
- Where and when is Monterrey vs CF Pachuca played?
- Monterrey vs CF Pachuca is played on October 19, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio BBVA, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.