AC Milan vs Parma: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Parma. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Parma?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (2,136 vs 1,940).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Parma have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Catania(home) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 AC Milan win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Parma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | AC Milan 0-1 Parma | Serie A |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Parma 2-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | AC Milan 3-2 Parma | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Parma 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Parma 1-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 13, 2020 | AC Milan 2-2 Parma | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Parma score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Parma | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 4th in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Parma sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Parma?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Parma.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Parma played?
- AC Milan vs Parma is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.