Arsenal vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 9, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Real Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,789 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
On Elo ratings, Arsenal has 2,437 points and Real Madrid 2,365.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arsenal vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 14V. Gyökeres
- 41D. Rice
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 10E. Eze
- 20N. Madueke
- 7B. Saka
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 12J. Timber
- 1David Raya
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 7Vinícius Júnior
- 16I. Konaté
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 05:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Real Madrid have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 4-2 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Arsenal wins, 1 draw, 0 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-2 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 24, 2019 | Real Madrid 2-2 Arsenal | International Champions Cup |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Arsenal on Apr 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 7th in UEFA Champions League (6 points from 2 matches) and Real Madrid sit 8th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
A question about Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Real Madrid.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Real Madrid played?
- Arsenal vs Real Madrid is played on December 9, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.