Treaty United vs UCD: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Markets Field, Limerick
The Footlab model makes UCD the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Treaty United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treaty United vs UCD?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Treaty United (1,312) and UCD (1,408).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treaty United have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; UCD have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wexford(home) | 4-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Treaty United(home) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Athlone Town(away) | 0-0 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Treaty United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 UCD win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | UCD 1-2 Treaty United | First Division |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Treaty United 1-2 UCD | FAI Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Treaty United 0-3 UCD | First Division |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCD 2-0 Treaty United | First Division |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Treaty United 1-0 UCD | First Division |
| Jul 4, 2025 | UCD 1-1 Treaty United | First Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Treaty United score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UCD score 1.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| UCD | 1.8 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treaty United sit 10th in First Division (16 points from 20 matches) and UCD sit 2nd (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UCD | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | UCD | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 33 | 44 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 41 | 30 |
| 10 | Treaty United | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treaty United vs UCD?
- The Footlab model makes UCD the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Treaty United.
- Where and when is Treaty United vs UCD played?
- Treaty United vs UCD is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Markets Field, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.