Finn Harps vs Kerry: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Finn Park, Ballybofey
The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Finn Harps. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Kerry starts as the favourite with a 240-point Elo edge (1,430 vs 1,189).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finn Harps have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Kerry have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 0-3 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | UCD(home) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Finn Harps win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Kerry win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry 2-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| May 8, 2026 | Finn Harps 1-0 Kerry | First Division |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Kerry 1-0 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Finn Harps 1-1 Kerry | First Division |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Kerry 0-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Finn Harps 4-2 Kerry | First Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Finn Harps score 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kerry score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Kerry | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Finn Harps sit 9th in First Division (18 points from 20 matches) and Kerry sit 8th (22 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kerry | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 36 |
| 8 | Kerry | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 22 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 56 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finn Harps vs Kerry?
- The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Finn Harps.
- Where and when is Finn Harps vs Kerry played?
- Finn Harps vs Kerry is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Finn Park, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.