Trefelin vs Briton Ferry: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Ynys Park, Cwmafan
The Footlab model makes Briton Ferry the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Trefelin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trefelin vs Briton Ferry?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Trefelin (1,761) and Briton Ferry (1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trefelin have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Briton Ferry have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | The New Saints(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Trefelin win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Briton Ferry win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | Trefelin 0-2 Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Briton Ferry 5-0 Trefelin | FAW Championship |
| Jan 6, 2023 | Briton Ferry 2-0 Trefelin | FAW Championship |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Trefelin 1-4 Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Trefelin 2-2 Briton Ferry | FAW Championship |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Briton Ferry 3-1 Trefelin | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Trefelin vs Briton Ferry on Apr 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Trefelin score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Briton Ferry score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | 2.6 | 1.4 | 7 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
| Briton Ferry | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trefelin sit 16th in Premier League (0 points from 4 matches) and Briton Ferry sit 8th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trefelin vs Briton Ferry?
- The Footlab model makes Briton Ferry the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Trefelin.
- Where and when is Trefelin vs Briton Ferry played?
- Trefelin vs Briton Ferry is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Ynys Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.