GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Essity Stadium, Y Fflint / Flint, Flintshire
The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for GAP Connah S Quay FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (2,060 vs 1,945).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; The New Saints have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 The New Saints win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | The New Saints 2-1 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Mar 3, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Dec 31, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 3-1 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-3 The New Saints | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2025 | The New Saints 3-0 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| May 4, 2025 | The New Saints 2-1 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; The New Saints score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| The New Saints | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and The New Saints sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The New Saints | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints?
- The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for GAP Connah S Quay FC.
- Where and when is GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints played?
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Essity Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.