Match

Tritium vs Real Calepina: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone BGroup B - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale La Rocca, Trezzo sull'Adda

TritiumReal Calepina

The Footlab model makes Real Calepina the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Tritium. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tritium vs Real Calepina?

Real Calepina starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,690 vs 1,546).

Tritium win34 %
Draw27 %
Real Calepina win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tritium have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Real Calepina have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tritium
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 5, 2024Pro Palazzolo(home)2-4Serie D - Girone B
Apr 28, 2024Club Milano(away)1-1Serie D - Girone B
Apr 21, 2024Desenzano Calvina(home)0-2Serie D - Girone B
Apr 14, 2024Caravaggio(away)2-3Serie D - Girone B
Apr 7, 2024Arconatese(home)0-1Serie D - Girone B
Real Calepina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Scanzorosciate(home)1-1Serie D - Girone B
Apr 26, 2026Sondrio(away)1-5Serie D - Girone B
Apr 19, 2026Folgore Caratese(away)1-1Serie D - Girone B
Apr 12, 2026Breno(home)1-1Serie D - Girone B
Apr 8, 2026Milan II(home)1-0Serie D - Girone B

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Tritium win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Real Calepina win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 3, 2024Tritium 0-3 Real CalepinaSerie D - Girone B
Oct 28, 2023Real Calepina 1-1 TritiumSerie D - Girone B
Aug 2, 2023Tritium 9-0 Real CalepinaFriendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Tritium vs Real Calepina on Mar 3, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Tritium score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Real Calepina score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Tritium0.71.625/154/15
Real Calepina1.11.258/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Real Calepina3411914424742

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tritium vs Real Calepina?
The Footlab model makes Real Calepina the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Tritium.
Where and when is Tritium vs Real Calepina played?
Tritium vs Real Calepina is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale La Rocca, in the Serie D - Girone B.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Tritium and Real Calepina

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