Tritium vs Villa Valle: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone BGroup B - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale La Rocca, Trezzo sull'Adda
The Footlab model makes Tritium the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Villa Valle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tritium vs Villa Valle?
Villa Valle starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,688 vs 1,546).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tritium have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Villa Valle have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2024 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Club Milano(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Desenzano Calvina(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Caravaggio(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Arconatese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Breno(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Oltrepò(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Caldiero Terme(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Milan II(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Tritium win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Villa Valle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | Villa Valle 2-0 Tritium | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Tritium 0-2 Villa Valle | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 26, 2019 | Tritium 1-1 Villa Valle | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Villa Valle vs Tritium on Feb 25, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Tritium score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Villa Valle score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tritium | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Villa Valle | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villa Valle | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 46 | 47 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tritium vs Villa Valle?
- The Footlab model makes Tritium the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Villa Valle.
- Where and when is Tritium vs Villa Valle played?
- Tritium vs Villa Valle is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale La Rocca, in the Serie D - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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