Truro City vs Dover: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 19Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Truro Sports Hub, Truro, Cornwall
The Footlab model makes Truro City the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Dover. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Truro City vs Dover?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Truro City (1,748) and Dover (1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Truro City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Dover have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Southampton U21(home) | 2-1 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelmsford City(away) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maidenhead(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Plymouth(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 3-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(home) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Slough Town(home) | 5-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Billericay Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Carshalton Athletic(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Truro City win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Dover win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | Truro City 1-0 Dover | National League - South |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Dover 0-2 Truro City | National League - South |
How many goals should we expect?
Truro City score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Dover score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truro City | 1.0 | 0.6 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Dover | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Truro City sit 4th in National League - South (7 points from 3 matches) and Dover sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Truro City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Dover | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Truro City vs Dover?
- The Footlab model makes Truro City the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Dover.
- Where and when is Truro City vs Dover played?
- Truro City vs Dover is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Truro Sports Hub, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Maidstone UtdvsChesham United
- Nov 28, 2026TorquayvsChelmsford City
- Nov 28, 2026BraintreevsAFC Totton
- Nov 28, 2026Billericay TownvsHorsham
- Nov 28, 2026Slough TownvsTonbridge Angels
- Nov 28, 2026Weston-super-MarevsMaidenhead
- Nov 28, 2026Folkestone InvictavsHampton & Richmond
- Nov 28, 2026SalisburyvsDagenham & Redbridge