UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 13Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD da Serra wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
On Elo ratings, UD da Serra has 1,881 points and Benfica Castelo Branco 1,833.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD da Serra
4-3-3- 9I. Nabais
- 17D. Gameiro
- 11Vieirinha
- 23G. Isaias
- 10M. Pereira
- 20W. Costa
- 3T. F. Justino G.
- 6R. Rodrigues
- 92B. Castro
- 2T. Neto
- 1D. Santos
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 02:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Benfica Castelo Branco have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 UD da Serra win, 1 draw, 2 Benfica Castelo Branco wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | UD da Serra 2-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 3-0 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Benfica Castelo Branco 4-3 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 20, 2022 | UD da Serra 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.3 | 1.6 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (12 points from 6 matches) and Benfica Castelo Branco sit 6th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD da Serra | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
A question about UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco played?
- UD da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.