UD da Serra vs Naval 1893: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Naval 1893. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Naval 1893?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate UD da Serra (1,896) and Naval 1893 (1,850).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD da Serra vs Naval 1893
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Naval 1893
Not enough data to predict the Naval 1893 lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 12:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Naval 1893 have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Uniao de Pombal(home) | 5-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 UD da Serra wins, 0 draws, 0 Naval 1893 wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Naval 1893 1-2 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 25, 2026 | UD da Serra 2-0 Naval 1893 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Naval 1893 3-5 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Naval 1893 score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Naval 1893 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (8 points from 4 matches) and Naval 1893 sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
A question about UD da Serra vs Naval 1893?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Naval 1893?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Naval 1893.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Naval 1893 played?
- UD da Serra vs Naval 1893 is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.