UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes
The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Bembibre. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 3,354 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre?
UD Santa Marta starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,728).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD Santa Marta
Not enough data to predict the UD Santa Marta lineup.
Bembibre
Not enough data to predict the Bembibre lineup.
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 01:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Bembibre have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mirandés II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Burgos Promesas(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 1-2 | Copa Federacion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Villaralbo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Arandina(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Unionistas II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | La Virgen del Camino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 UD Santa Marta wins, 2 draws, 2 Bembibre wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Bembibre 2-2 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 2-0 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 4, 2025 | Bembibre 2-2 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 0-1 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Bembibre 2-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | UD Santa Marta 3-2 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Santa Marta score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bembibre score 1.6 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Santa Marta | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Bembibre | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Santa Marta sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (17 points from 8 matches) and Bembibre sit 6th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Bembibre | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
A question about UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Bembibre.
- Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre played?
- UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 11, 2027AlmazánvsCristo Atlético
- Apr 11, 2027Burgos PromesasvsAtlético Mansillés
- Apr 11, 2027Cultural Leonesa IIvsGuijuelo
- Apr 11, 2027Salamanca IIvsTurégano
- Apr 11, 2027Colegios DiocesanosvsUnionistas II
- Apr 11, 2027Palencia CFvsLa Virgen del Camino
- Apr 11, 2027VillaralbovsArandina
- Apr 11, 2027Calasanz de SoriavsMirandés II