Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos played?

UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes

UD Santa Marta

Colegios Diocesanos

The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Colegios Diocesanos. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos?

UD Santa Marta starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,807 vs 1,592).

UD Santa Marta win78 %

Draw15 %

Colegios Diocesanos win7 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Colegios Diocesanos have 5, 1 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Santa Marta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 16, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 10, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Colegios Diocesanos
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Cristo Atlético(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Villaralbo(away)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 25, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 19, 2026	Unionistas II(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 12, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 UD Santa Marta win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Colegios Diocesanos win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 14, 2026	UD Santa Marta 0-0 Colegios Diocesanos	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 4, 2025	Colegios Diocesanos 0-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Mar 9, 2024	Colegios Diocesanos 0-2 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 21, 2023	UD Santa Marta 0-0 Colegios Diocesanos	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 26, 2022	UD Santa Marta 2-1 Colegios Diocesanos	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 11, 2021	Colegios Diocesanos 1-4 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos on Feb 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Colegios Diocesanos score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
UD Santa Marta	1.5	1.3	2	11/15	8/15
Colegios Diocesanos	1.0	2.1	3	8/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UD Santa Marta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (62 points from 34 matches) and Colegios Diocesanos sit 13th (36 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	UD Santa Marta	34	18	8	8	53	31	62
13	Colegios Diocesanos	34	10	6	18	33	54	36

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos?: The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Colegios Diocesanos.
Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos played?: UD Santa Marta vs Colegios Diocesanos is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.