Where and when is Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF played?

Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares, Burgos

Burgos Promesas

Palencia CF

The Footlab model makes Burgos Promesas the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Palencia CF. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Burgos Promesas (1,815) and Palencia CF (1,804).

Burgos Promesas win45 %

Draw28 %

Palencia CF win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burgos Promesas have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Palencia CF have 7, 1 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Burgos Promesas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Real Valladolid II(away)	0-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Salamanca UDS(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 18, 2026	Atlético Astorga(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 12, 2026	Coruxo(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 5, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	1-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Palencia CF
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Sporting Gijón II(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 31, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	2-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 23, 2026	Cristo Atlético(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 17, 2026	Cristo Atlético(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Burgos Promesas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Palencia CF win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 30, 2025	Burgos Promesas 1-1 Palencia CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 10, 2024	Palencia CF 0-1 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2024	Palencia CF 4-1 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 7, 2024	Burgos Promesas 2-0 Palencia CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF on Mar 30, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Burgos Promesas score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Palencia CF score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Burgos Promesas	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15
Palencia CF	1.7	1.5	2	11/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Palencia CF	34	20	4	10	59	39	64

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF?: The Footlab model makes Burgos Promesas the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Palencia CF.
Where and when is Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF played?: Burgos Promesas vs Palencia CF is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.