UD Santa Marta vs La Virgen del Camino: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes
The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for La Virgen del Camino. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs La Virgen del Camino?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate UD Santa Marta (1,807) and La Virgen del Camino (1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; La Virgen del Camino have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Tordesillas(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 16, 2026 | Guijuelo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 10, 2026 | Almazán(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mojados(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 1, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Palencia CF(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Becerril Campos(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Arandina(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 UD Santa Marta win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 La Virgen del Camino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | UD Santa Marta 4-0 La Virgen del Camino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | La Virgen del Camino 0-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 1-3 La Virgen del Camino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | La Virgen del Camino 0-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | La Virgen del Camino 1-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | UD Santa Marta 4-4 La Virgen del Camino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: UD Santa Marta vs La Virgen del Camino on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; La Virgen del Camino score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Santa Marta | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| La Virgen del Camino | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Santa Marta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (62 points from 34 matches) and La Virgen del Camino sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 31 | 62 |
| 9 | La Virgen del Camino | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 37 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs La Virgen del Camino?
- The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for La Virgen del Camino.
- Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs La Virgen del Camino played?
- UD Santa Marta vs La Virgen del Camino is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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