UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 · Matchday 21Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes
The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Palencia CF. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Santa Marta wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,506 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF?
On Elo ratings, UD Santa Marta has 1,832 points and Palencia CF 1,808.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD Santa Marta
Not enough data to predict the UD Santa Marta lineup.
Palencia CF
Not enough data to predict the Palencia CF lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 05:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Palencia CF have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Salamanca II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mirandés II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Burgos Promesas(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Bembibre(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cristo Atlético(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Turégano(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Salamanca II(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 UD Santa Marta wins, 2 draws, 2 Palencia CF wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Palencia CF 3-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | UD Santa Marta 2-1 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Palencia CF 2-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 2-0 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Palencia CF 1-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UD Santa Marta 1-1 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta on Sep 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Palencia CF score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Santa Marta | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Palencia CF | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Santa Marta sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (23 points from 10 matches) and Palencia CF sit 5th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Santa Marta | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Palencia CF | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 17 |
A question about UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Palencia CF.
- Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF played?
- UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF is played on February 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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