Where and when is Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta played?

Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Nueva Balastera, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Nueva Balastera, Palencia

Palencia CF

UD Santa Marta

The Footlab model makes Palencia CF the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for UD Santa Marta. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta?

A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Palencia CF (1,804) and UD Santa Marta (1,804).

Palencia CF win50 %

Draw25 %

UD Santa Marta win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palencia CF have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Palencia CF
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Sporting Gijón II(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 31, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	2-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 23, 2026	Cristo Atlético(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 17, 2026	Cristo Atlético(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

UD Santa Marta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 16, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 10, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Palencia CF win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 UD Santa Marta win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 2, 2026	UD Santa Marta 2-1 Palencia CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 4, 2026	Palencia CF 2-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 20, 2025	UD Santa Marta 2-0 Palencia CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Dec 6, 2024	Palencia CF 1-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 18, 2024	UD Santa Marta 1-1 Palencia CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 30, 2023	Palencia CF 2-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: UD Santa Marta vs Palencia CF on May 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Palencia CF score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Palencia CF	1.7	1.5	2	11/15	10/15
UD Santa Marta	1.5	1.3	2	11/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Palencia CF sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (64 points from 34 matches) and UD Santa Marta sit 5th (62 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Palencia CF	34	20	4	10	59	39	64
5	UD Santa Marta	34	18	8	8	53	31	62

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta?: The Footlab model makes Palencia CF the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for UD Santa Marta.
Where and when is Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta played?: Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Nueva Balastera, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.