Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo played?

UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes

UD Santa Marta

Villaralbo

The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Villaralbo. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo?

A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate UD Santa Marta (1,807) and Villaralbo (1,729).

UD Santa Marta win59 %

Draw25 %

Villaralbo win16 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Villaralbo have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Santa Marta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 16, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 10, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Villaralbo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 9, 2026	Mirandés II(away)	2-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Colegios Diocesanos(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Unionistas II(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	Cultural Leonesa II(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 UD Santa Marta win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Villaralbo win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 22, 2026	Villaralbo 0-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 11, 2025	UD Santa Marta 3-0 Villaralbo	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 5, 2025	UD Santa Marta 1-0 Villaralbo	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 17, 2024	Villaralbo 0-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 5, 2024	Villaralbo 2-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 13, 2024	UD Santa Marta 2-1 Villaralbo	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Villaralbo vs UD Santa Marta on Feb 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Villaralbo score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
UD Santa Marta	1.5	1.3	2	11/15	8/15
Villaralbo	1.1	1.2	4	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UD Santa Marta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (62 points from 34 matches) and Villaralbo sit 11th (42 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	UD Santa Marta	34	18	8	8	53	31	62
11	Villaralbo	34	11	9	14	29	37	42

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo?: The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Villaralbo.
Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo played?: UD Santa Marta vs Villaralbo is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.