Ukraine vs Georgia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab AI model makes Ukraine the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Georgia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ukraine wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ukraine vs Georgia?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Ukraine (1,588) and Georgia (1,534).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ukraine vs Georgia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ukraine
3-4-1-2- 10M. Ponomarenko
- 22I. Krasnopir
- 15V. Tsygankov
- 18O. Ocheretko
- 19E. Nazaryna
- 2I. Krupskyi
- 8H. Sudakov
- 3E. Sarapiy
- 13I. Zabarnyi
- 4T. Mykhavko
- 12A. Trubin
Georgia
4-2-3-1- 22G. Mikautadze
- 7K. Kvaratskhelia
- 6G. Kochorashvili
- 14A. Mekvabishvili
- 8O. Kiteishvili
- 10G. Chakvetadze
- 4L. Lochoshvili
- 3L. Dvali
- 2O. Kakabadze
- 5S. Goglichidze
- 1G. Mamardashvili
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ukraine have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Georgia have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Hungary(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Northern Ireland(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bahrain(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Ukraine win, 2 draws, 0 Georgia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Georgia 0-0 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Georgia 1-1 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Ukraine 1-0 Georgia | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ukraine score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Georgia score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Georgia | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ukraine sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (4 points from 4 matches) and Georgia sit 4th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
A question about Ukraine vs Georgia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ukraine vs Georgia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ukraine the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Georgia.
- Where and when is Ukraine vs Georgia played?
- Ukraine vs Georgia is played on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.