Ukraine vs Georgia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Ukraine the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Georgia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ukraine vs Georgia?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Ukraine (1,616) and Georgia (1,552).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ukraine have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Georgia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bahrain(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Romania(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Israel(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Bulgaria(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ukraine win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Georgia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Georgia 1-1 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Ukraine 1-0 Georgia | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ukraine score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Georgia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Georgia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ukraine vs Georgia?
- The Footlab model makes Ukraine the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Georgia.
- Where and when is Ukraine vs Georgia played?
- Ukraine vs Georgia is played on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.