Poland vs Sweden: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Śląski, Chorzów
The Footlab model makes Poland the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Sweden. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Poland vs Sweden?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Poland (1,591) and Sweden (1,612).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Poland have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Sweden have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta(away) | 3-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Japan(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Norway(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Poland win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sweden win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Poland 2-0 Sweden | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Poland score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sweden score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Sweden | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Poland vs Sweden?
- The Footlab model makes Poland the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Sweden.
- Where and when is Poland vs Sweden played?
- Poland vs Sweden is played on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Śląski, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.