Poland vs Sweden: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Śląski, Chorzów
The Footlab AI model makes Poland the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Sweden. The most likely score is 1-1. If Poland wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Poland vs Sweden?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Poland (1,580) and Sweden (1,633).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Poland vs Sweden
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Poland
4-2-3-1- 9M. Żukowski
- 10P. Zieliński
- 20S. Szymański
- 21N. Zalewski
- 16W. Nowak
- 11K. Świderski
- 5J. Bednarek
- 14J. Kiwior
- 2M. Cash
- 19P. Frankowski
- 1M. Bułka
Sweden
4-4-2- 17V. Gyökeres
- 22B. Zeneli
- 21A. Bernhardsson
- 19S. Nanasi
- 7L. Bergvall
- 16J. Karlström
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5G. Gudmundsson
- 15C. Starfelt
- 4E. Smith
- 12V. Johansson
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Poland have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Sweden have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Romania(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Romania(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Poland(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Romania(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 30, 2026 | France(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Poland win, 0 draws, 3 Sweden wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sweden 3-1 Poland | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Poland 2-0 Sweden | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Poland score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sweden score 1.7 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Sweden | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Poland sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (4 points from 4 matches) and Sweden sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
A question about Poland vs Sweden?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Poland vs Sweden?
- The Footlab AI model makes Poland the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Sweden.
- Where and when is Poland vs Sweden played?
- Poland vs Sweden is played on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Śląski, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.