Israel vs Austria: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Bozsik Aréna, Budapest
The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Israel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Israel vs Austria?
Austria starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,688 vs 1,509).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Israel have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Austria have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Moldova(home) | 4-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Lithuania(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Italy(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Algeria(away) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jordan(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | South Korea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Israel win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Austria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2021 | Austria 4-2 Israel | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 4, 2021 | Israel 5-2 Austria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Oct 10, 2019 | Austria 3-1 Israel | Euro Championship |
| Mar 24, 2019 | Israel 4-2 Austria | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Israel score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Austria score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Austria | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Israel vs Austria?
- The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Israel.
- Where and when is Israel vs Austria played?
- Israel vs Austria is played on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Bozsik Aréna, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.