Umeå FC vs Vasalund: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 19Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 11:45 AM (UTC)Umeå Energi Arena SOL, Umeå
The Footlab model makes Vasalund the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Umeå FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
Vasalund starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,633 vs 1,520).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Umeå FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Vasalund have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enköping(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gefle IF(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 1-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 0-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Täfteå(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Stocksund(home) | 4-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 20, 2026 | IFK Norrkoping(home) | 1-2 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Piteå(away) | 1-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(home) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Sollentuna(home) | 1-1 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Umeå FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Vasalund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Vasalund 3-1 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Vasalund 1-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| May 25, 2024 | Umeå FC 1-1 Vasalund | Ettan - Norra |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Umeå FC 0-1 Vasalund | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 11, 2023 | Vasalund 1-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Vasalund 2-1 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
How many goals should we expect?
Umeå FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Vasalund score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umeå FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Vasalund | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Umeå FC sit 13th in Ettan - Norra (17 points from 18 matches) and Vasalund sit 10th (23 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vasalund | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 23 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
- The Footlab model makes Vasalund the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Umeå FC.
- Where and when is Umeå FC vs Vasalund played?
- Umeå FC vs Vasalund is played on August 30, 2026 at 11:45 AM (UTC) at Umeå Energi Arena SOL, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.