Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Estudiantes L.P. the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Union Santa Fe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.?
Estudiantes L.P. starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,962 vs 1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Santa Fe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Estudiantes L.P. have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lanus(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 19, 2026 | U. Catolica(away) | 3-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(home) | 4-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | U. Catolica(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Union Santa Fe win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Estudiantes L.P. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Estudiantes L.P. 3-1 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Union Santa Fe 0-1 Estudiantes L.P. | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Estudiantes L.P. 1-3 Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Estudiantes L.P. vs Union Santa Fe on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Santa Fe score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estudiantes L.P. score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Santa Fe sit 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina (21 points from 16 matches) and Estudiantes L.P. sit 1st (31 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 31 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.?
- The Footlab model makes Estudiantes L.P. the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Union Santa Fe.
- Where and when is Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. played?
- Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 15 de Abril, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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