Union Santa Fe vs Independiente: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 10Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Independiente. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Independiente starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,924 vs 1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Santa Fe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Independiente have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lanus(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Union Santa Fe win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Independiente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Union Santa Fe 0-2 Independiente | Copa Argentina |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Independiente 4-4 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Independiente 3-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Union Santa Fe 3-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 19, 2022 | Union Santa Fe 0-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 26, 2021 | Independiente 1-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Union Santa Fe vs Independiente on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Santa Fe score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Independiente | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Santa Fe sit 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina (21 points from 16 matches) and Independiente sit 5th (24 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Independiente | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
- The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Independiente.
- Where and when is Union Santa Fe vs Independiente played?
- Union Santa Fe vs Independiente is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 15 de Abril, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 20, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsBanfield
- Sep 20, 2026River PlatevsHuracan
- Sep 20, 2026Racing ClubvsSarmiento Junin
- Sep 20, 2026Rosario CentralvsArgentinos JRS
- Sep 20, 2026Velez SarsfieldvsTigre
- Sep 20, 2026Belgrano CordobavsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Sep 20, 2026LanusvsEstudiantes L.P.
- Sep 20, 2026San LorenzovsBoca Juniors