Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Lommel United. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?
Union St. Gilloise is a heavy favourite: 2,191 Elo points against 1,867 — a 325-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union St. Gilloise have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Lommel United have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 5-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 1-1 | Super Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 4-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Charleroi(home) | 0-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 1-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Union St. Gilloise win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Lommel United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2021 | Lommel United 0-2 Union St. Gilloise | Challenger Pro League |
| Feb 27, 2021 | Union St. Gilloise 3-2 Lommel United | Challenger Pro League |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Lommel United 0-1 Union St. Gilloise | Challenger Pro League |
| Oct 4, 2020 | Union St. Gilloise 4-2 Lommel United | Challenger Pro League |
| Jan 26, 2020 | Union St. Gilloise 2-2 Lommel United | Challenger Pro League |
| Nov 23, 2019 | Lommel United 0-0 Union St. Gilloise | Challenger Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise on Apr 11, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Union St. Gilloise score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lommel United score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Lommel United | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union St. Gilloise sit 7th in Jupiler Pro League (4 points from 2 matches) and Lommel United sit 13th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Lommel United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?
- The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Lommel United.
- Where and when is Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United played?
- Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United is played on September 12, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Joseph Mariën, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.